Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.937403 2.048276 2.164514 2.295876 2.440710 2.596100 2.776197
2025-09-14 1.752008 1.902750 2.068011 2.264072 2.492252 2.751868 3.073184
2025-09-21 1.627629 1.798952 1.992415 2.229680 2.516560 2.857316 3.300789
2025-09-28 1.528710 1.711958 1.923575 2.189849 2.521699 2.929945 3.484253
2025-10-05 1.484759 1.683880 1.918880 2.222180 2.611920 3.109149 3.815616
2025-10-12 1.448795 1.661502 1.917438 2.255438 2.702228 3.292242 4.168621
2025-10-19 1.414511 1.638150 1.911888 2.280954 2.781633 3.464579 4.523616
2025-10-26 1.368737 1.597487 1.881328 2.270470 2.809761 3.565646 4.782172
2025-11-02 1.327146 1.559749 1.851944 2.258690 2.833598 3.660295 5.039435
2025-11-09 1.283693 1.517499 1.814266 2.232767 2.834431 3.719231 5.243672
2025-11-16 1.242914 1.476934 1.776734 2.204487 2.829055 3.766813 5.432542
2025-11-23 1.216318 1.453712 1.761006 2.205285 2.865571 3.881145 5.751682
2025-11-30 1.194496 1.436422 1.753066 2.217423 2.921012 4.032540 6.166210
2025-12-07 1.159063 1.399737 1.717167 2.187335 2.909536 4.072628 6.374353
2025-12-14 1.125098 1.363861 1.680938 2.154808 2.891786 4.099853 6.559915
2025-12-21 1.091439 1.327349 1.642486 2.117117 2.863301 4.105670 6.701355
2025-12-28 1.082289 1.323800 1.649822 2.147714 2.945963 4.313693 7.313209
2026-01-04 1.073926 1.320901 1.657719 2.179171 3.031681 4.535588 8.006199
2026-01-11 1.063723 1.315012 1.660936 2.203294 3.106365 4.744460 8.720265
2026-01-18 1.043891 1.295029 1.642993 2.193384 3.121745 4.839697 9.167685
2026-01-25 1.024692 1.275387 1.624855 2.182245 3.134041 4.929623 9.623099
2026-02-01 1.002571 1.251037 1.599043 2.157729 3.121035 4.966490 9.937810
2026-02-08 0.980791 1.226660 1.572495 2.130972 3.102436 4.989956 10.219932